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After 18 years as a bulwark of the Fox network, America's favorite two-dimensional family is making its first appearance on the big screen, and the curiosity factor alone should propel the 20th Century Fox release to the top box office spot in North America.
While the studio is cautiously hoping that the movie opens in the mid-$30 million range, it could easily shoot into $40 million territory, possibly hitting the $50 million mark.
Warner Bros. Pictures' restaurant-set romance No Reservations also bows this weekend and will be looking for female moviegoers in the mood for an adult love story. But with a crowded field of holdovers jostling for attention, Reservations might find cracking the top five a challenge.
As for the weekend's other two wide releases--the golfing comedy Who's Your Caddy? and the Lindsay Lohan suspense thriller I Know Who Killed Me--they will be lucky if they make it into the bottom rungs of the top 10.
Certainly, no one in America needs an introduction to the Simpsons. David Silverman directs the film, in which Homer and family bump up against the environment and other hot-button topics.
While there always is a question about how many fans will show up for a movie based on a TV series that is going strong in first-run and syndication, the fact that the Simpsons' fan base rushed the dozen 7-Eleven locations in North America that were outfitted as Kwik-E-Marts is a good omen.
If there's one softness in The Simpsons Movie's tracking, it's older women, which provides an opening for Reservations, starring Catherine Zeta-Jones and Aaron Eckhart as top chefs who become romantically involved between courses. The PG-rated film is directed by Scott Hicks (Shine) and is based on Sandra Nettelbeck's 2001 German film Mostly Martha.
The film could find itself hovering around the $8 million-$10 million mark. Whether it breaks into the top five will depend on the relative strengths of Universal Pictures' reigning champ I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry and New Line Cinema's Hairspray, both in their second weekend; Warners' Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, in its third round; and Paramount's Transformers, in its fourth stand. They all likely will be checking in amid the $10 million-$20 million range.
On the lower end of the spectrum, Sony Pictures' I Know Who Killed Me and Lionsgate's Caddy are not expected to rise above the $5 million mark.
An R-rated thriller, and yet another tale of abduction and torture, Killed got an unexpected burst of publicity this week when Lohan was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence and cocaine possession. The film still faces an uphill struggle because genre fans have cooled to hard-R serial killer tales of late.
Caddy, a PG-13 comedy starring OutKast hip-hop star Antwan 'Big Boi' Patton as a rap mogul who forces his way into a conservative country club, is aimed squarely at the black, family audience.
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